I. Ermi, Sugianto, E. Wulandari
Southwest Aceh Regency, one of the rice-producing areas in Aceh Province, has experienced changes in rice field area due to population growth and land use conversion, impacting food security. This research aims to design a system dynamics model to assess future availability of rice fields and rice food. Secondary data from relevant agencies include population growth, rice field area, paddy production, consumption, and land use conversion coefficients. The research method uses system dynamics modeling with a cause-effect approach in Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) and Stock Flow Diagram (SFD) using Powersim Studio 10 software. The results show that changes in agricultural land use are triggered by population growth, reducing harvest area and paddy production. The simulation identified several key scenarios for sustainable food agricultural land, namely: (1) increasing production facilities with certified superior seeds can increase yields to 90,000 tons by 2045, (2) providing government incentives through DAK and DAU funds for equipment assistance and accelerating land certification can maintain 6,500 hectares of rice fields by 2045 and reduce land use conversion by 0.16% per year. Managing feedback from complex systems will result in actionable solutions. With CLD and model simulation through Powersim, strategic policies can be formulated to address sustainable agricultural land use changes in Southwest Aceh Regency. © Published under licence by IOP Publishing Ltd.
Environmental Management Program, Syiah Kuala University (USK), Banda Aceh, Indonesia; Department of Soil Science, Faculty of Agriculture, Syiah Kuala University (USK), Banda Aceh, Indonesia; Department of Architecture, Faculty of Engineering, Syiah Kuala University (USK), Banda Aceh, Indonesia
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