Ashfa Achmad, Mirza Irwansyah, Evalina Zuraidi, Siti Zahrina Fakhrana, Atika Izzaty
Coastal landscapes represent some of the planet's most ecologically significant environments due to the wide range of ecosystem services they provide, including climate regulation, carbon sequestration, and flood mitigation. However, these landscapes are increasingly threatened by rapid urbanization and post-disaster reconstruction, which have led to environmental degradation and diminished sustainability. This study examines spatiotemporal changes in land use and land cover (LULC) and their implications for ecosystem service value (ESV) in the coastal zone of Banda Aceh, Indonesia, from 2015 to 2024, with projections to 2040. Using Sentinel-2 imagery, LULC classes were identified through supervised classification and assessed for change accuracy. Future landscape patterns were simulated using the CA–Markov model to estimate transitions among vegetation, wetland, and built-up areas. ESV was calculated, incorporating spatial and temporal dynamics. Results reveal a decline in built-up area, accompanied by reductions in wetland and vegetation cover, resulting in an estimated 10.5% reduction in total ESV between 2015 and 2024. Sensitivity analysis indicates that conversions from wetlands and vegetation to built-up land result in the most significant losses in ESV. Projections to 2040 suggest the potential for partial ecological recovery through the re-expansion of wetland areas. The study highlights the importance of integrating ecosystem-service valuation into spatial planning and coastal resilience strategies. More broadly, the findings provide an empirical framework for guiding sustainable land-use decision-making in post-disaster coastal cities across the Global South. This study provides a coastal-specific application integrating ESV estimation with CA–Markov-based projections, offering insights to support spatial planning in post-disaster coastal contexts. © 2026 The authors. This article is published by IIETA and is licensed under the CC BY 4.0 license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
Architecture and Planning Department, Universitas Syiah Kuala, Banda Aceh 23111, Indonesia; Civil Engineering Department, Universitas Hasanuddin, Gowa, 92171, Indonesia
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