Tursina, Syamsidik, Shigeru Kato, Mochammad Afifuddin, Muhammad Daffa Al Farizi
This paper presents a probabilistic tsunami hazard assesment (PTHA), due to the influence of sea level rise and its interaction with tides and land use/cover change. The city of Banda Aceh (Indonesia) was chosen as the location of this research study because it is vulnerable to tsunami hazards and coastal hazards, including sea level rise (SLR). The 90 tsunami scenarios were simulated, consisting of 6 earthquake magnitudes of Mw 8.2, 8.4, 8.6, 8.8, 9.0, and 9.2, five phases of tidal levels, and SLRs of 50 and 100 years. As an aspect of vulnerability, land use/cover changes (LULC) are projected for the next 50 and 100 years. Several observation points represent the variety of land use/land cover in Banda Aceh, in terms of tsunami height and analysis of hazard curves. According to the findings of the study, there is a significant difference between PTHA without SLR, and PTHA with SLR influence. This significant difference is also observed when the tsunami propagates at high tide, compared to low tide. The interaction between sea level rise and high tides provides a significant impact on tsunami height and land use and land cover in Banda Aceh. Tsunami interaction with tides and sea level rise shortens the return period of tsunami probability. These results show that the dynamic interaction of tsunami waves between tides, sea level rise, and land use/land cover cannot be ignored in assessing the tsunami hazard, in order to gain more precise estimations. The methodology proposed in this study can be applied to another region with a similar condition. With the potentially increasing coastal hazards in the future, due to climate change, that can have a greater impact on the tsunami disaster, this implies the need for Integrated Coastal Zone Management for tsunami risk reduction. © 2025 Elsevier Ltd
Doctoral Program, School of Engineering, Post Graduate School, Universitas Syiah Kuala, Darussalam, Banda Aceh, 23111, Indonesia; Civil Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, Universitas Syiah Kuala, Darussalam, Banda Aceh, 23111, Indonesia; Department of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Toyohashi University of Technology, Aichi, Toyohashi, 441-8580, Japan; Tsunami and Disaster Mitigation Research Center (TDMRC), Universitas Syiah Kuala, Jl. Hamzah Fansuri 8, Darussalam, Banda Aceh, 23111, Indonesia; Civil Engineering Department, Politeknik Negeri Lhokseumawe, Jl. Banda Aceh-Medan, Km. 280,3, Lhokseumawe, 24301, Indonesia; International Research Institute of Disaster Science (IRIDeS), Tohoku University, Aramaki Aza-Aoba 468-1, Aoba-ku, Sendai, 980-0845, Japan
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