A. Rusyana, Nurhasanah, S. Astuti
A Museum is a place to collect, treat, store, and exhibit objects of cultural heritage coming from different times. The museum is also used as a means of education, research, and entertainment. In Banda Aceh city, there are two museums that can be visited, namely Aceh Tsunami Museum and Aceh State Museum. The number of visitors to the Aceh State Museum is still fewer than visitorsof Aceh Tsunami Museum. This is because the visitor's interest in the museum is fewer from the Aceh Tsunami Museum, it is clear that the Aceh Tsunami Museum has a good building, and the curiosity of past tsunami events makes visitors more interesting. However, like a museum that stores and exhibits Aceh culture, the Aceh State Museum is also very important to know. This study aims to predict the number of visitors to the museum in the future to anticipate the possibility that occurred in the future. Forecasting the number of visitors to the State Museum of Aceh in the future will use decomposition method because the plot of data the number of visitors of Aceh State Museum produced is a pattern of seasonal data. The data used are data on the number of visitors to Aceh State Museum from 2008 until 2014. The method of decomposition forecasting consists of two models, namely multiplicative model and additive model. Based on the best model, the number of visitors to the museum in 2015 is predicted. Method of additive decomposition model is the best model with the smallest error value,MSE = 149.098, MAE = 269, MPE = -5.4 and MAPE = 17.9. The result of prediction the number of visitors of Aceh State Museum in 2015 increased by 29% from the number of visitors of Aceh State Museum in the previous year. © Published under licence by IOP Publishing Ltd.
Department of Statistics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Syiah Kuala University, Banda Aceh, Indonesia; Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Syiah Kuala University, Banda Aceh, Indonesia
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